Watching Zimbabwe politics from this close is interesting. Robert Mugabe has clearly lost the election, but he won’t give up power. As we watch this spectacle, it’s hard not to picture that this could just as easily be Namibia that we’re talking about.
This is an interesting list, but are we talking about Zimbabwe or Namibia? Namibia, actually.
I think that in many ways Namibia represents what Zimbabwe was 15 years ago. SWAPO, the ruling party in Namibia, has been in power for 18 years. It’s almost impossible to separate SWAPO from the government, the two are so closely entwined. Just like in Zimbabwe with Zanu-PF.
What’s scary is the idea that Zimbabwe may represent Namibia’s future. Both countries were liberated in violent struggles. Both countries ostensibly formed democracies and were subsequently led by the former leader of the liberation struggle, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe and Sam Nujoma in Namibia. The Namibian constitution limits each president to two terms of office. Sam Nujoma served three. The rationalization from his party was that the first term didn’t count.
Sam Nujoma has retired and handed the reigns of power to a successor within his own party. But you’re not truly a democracy until you can have a change of government without bloodshed. You’re not truly a democracy until you understand that opposition does not equal enemy.
In England, the opposition parties are referred to as “Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition,” noting in the terminology that opposition to the ruling party does not equal treason to the country.
The same is not true here. SWAPO members have beaten up RDP supporters. Many RDP leaders were once part of SWAPO but have become disenchanted with how SWAPO is running the government and the country. These people have inside knowledge and are able to offer damning criticism. Also, many of them can claim to be war heroes as readily as SWAPO’s elite, making them harder to dismiss. Perhaps for that reason, rhetoric against RDP is particularly fierce.
Local elections where the pending result seemed to favour RDP were cancelled at the last minute. Government officials were fired for following the law when such actions were seen to benefit RDP. In one case, a government elections official was fired because he made the electoral roll available for public scrutiny, exactly as the law requires. The RDP used the list to challenge the inclusion of known SWAPO supporters who probably weren’t actually eligible to vote in that district.
Local police forces are trying to enforce laws regarding gun control and reign in any violence, but whenever they report SWAPO-on-RDP violence, they are criticized in the state-run media for “taking sides” or “interfering” in politics. SWAPO officials will not make public statements calling for restraint or lack of violence despite repeated requests from police forces that they do so. All other political parties have made such statements.
In many ways Namibia has done well by SWAPO. The infrastructure has, if not improved, then at least not deteriorated significantly since independence. The major systems – electricity, water, roads – are mostly functional; functional to a very high degree by the standards of most African nations.
And to be fair, in some ways, SWAPO is caught in world trends. The price of food is going up, as is petrol. A long drought throughout the region, followed by severe flooding, have hit the agriculture sectors of the economy hard.
Have they done enough to help the country survive these problems?
There are good examples, such as the Etunda project and bad indicators,
such
as the
unbalanced reaction to local flooding.
The Etunda Irrigation Project is a huge success, but on a small scale.
The project has proven its worth, now it needs to be expanded beyond
SWAPO’s
main support region.
There is no timeshifting of natural resources. For example, the northern regions are being hit hard by flooding, after a long drought. Is any of this water being stored or retained for use later, once the inevitable hot spells return? No. No large reservoirs have been built, even though during a normal year, there is localized flooding followed by localized droughts. Apparently, the government hopes that the natural aquifers will be replenished enough to sustain the country’s needs.
And the government’s response to the flooding has been uneven. When Caprivi was flooded, it was met with indifference. When Kavango was flooded, it was met with indifference. When Owamba was flooded, it was a national emergency. Why? Because most of the government’s ministers, including both the past and current presidents, are from Owamba.
The elections that are pending in 2009 are already being hotly contested in parliament’s question period and in the local media and grassroots political meetings.
SWAPO’s trademark is the raised fist, a symbol of defiance of the oppressed toward the oppressor. But SWAPO has been in power for 18 years. How are they oppressed? It bothers me every time there is a SWAPO rally – which invariably will be broadcast without commentary or criticism on the state-run media – and the streets are filled with little 10- and 11-year old boys raising their fist at each passing car. What are these children learning, democracy or hatred?
Robert Mugabe blames others, outsiders, whites, people not of his tribe, for everything that has gone wrong under his rule. Yet he appears to have lost an election that he tried desparately to stack in his favour. (Appears, because as of this writing, the election results haven’t been released – last word is that Zanu-PF, Mugabe’s party, wants a recount of the total before it is even released.). There are many who feel that he won’t let go of power easily, that democracy – once put to an honest test – will die in Zimbabwe.
Next year, we may get to see if Namibia will be the next Zimbabwe, a country where “democracy” exists in name but not in reality. Hope for the best, but fear the worst.
